Central Alberta Market Update - Sept 2025

Posted on Sep 07, 2025

What’s Happening in the Market?

Over the summer, we started to see the market shift, and that trend is continuing into fall.
  • Across Alberta: In July, sales dropped 4.2% compared to last year, while new listings jumped 9.1%. Inventory is up 17%, and months of supply (the time it would take to sell everything if no new homes hit the market) rose to 2.76. Buyers now have more choices than they did in spring, and that gives them a bit more leverage.
  • Red Deer: July wrapped up with 213 sales, 276 new listings, and 315 active properties. The sales-to-new listings ratio sat at 77%, with only 1.48 months of supply, still a strong market, but more competitive than earlier this year. The average price came in around $404,800, which is up about 10% from last year.
  • Trend into late summer: Year-to-date, Red Deer sales are down about 7% compared to 2024. This lines up with what we’re noticing: buyers aren’t rushing quite as much, and there are more options available.
  • Other Central Alberta communities: Inventory is creeping up here too. As of September 3rd, Sylvan Lake is sitting around 2.6 months of inventory (up from 1.6–1.9 earlier in summer). Lacombe is at about 2.3, and Blackfalds at 1.3. These are still seller-leaning numbers, but they’re moving in a softer direction.
  • New construction: Builders are busy. Red Deer recorded 297 housing starts between January and July, up slightly from last year. Single-family home starts alone jumped 66%, which means we can expect more supply in the pipeline.
  • Interest rates & affordability: The Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.75% at the end of July, and bank prime is around 4.95%. That’s pulled some buyers back into the market, but not everyone. Affordability is better than it was last year, but buyers are definitely being more picky and taking their time in making a decision. 
Summary: We’re moving out of the spring/summer peak into a fall market where more listings are competing for the same buyers. Prices are still holding strong in many segments, but inventory is rising, and homes will take longer to sell if they aren’t priced and marketed strategically.

What This Means for You

If You’re Selling This Fall

  • Stand out on value. With competition heating up, small price cuts (like $5K) usually don’t make a difference. Positioning your home clearly as one of the best values in your bracket is what gets buyers in the door.
  • Make it easy for buyers. Pre-inspections, updated Real Property Reports, and move-in readiness can make a big difference when buyers are moving slower.
  • Presentation matters more than ever. A mini-refresh (fresh paint touch-ups, new light fixtures, curb appeal) paired with a sharp marketing plan can help you get ahead of buyer hesitations.

If You’re Buying

  • More selection, less pressure. With inventory up 17% across Alberta, buyers are finally getting more choice and less competition in many price ranges.
  • The cleanest offers win. Short condition periods, a solid deposit, and being lender-ready can help you secure a home without always having to stretch on price.
  • Know your market. Conditions can vary dramatically: Sylvan Lake is trending softer than Blackfalds, for example, so your leverage depends on where you’re shopping.
  • Lock in your rate. With the Bank of Canada holding steady and prime near 4.95%, talk to your lender about a 60–120 day rate hold so you can shop with confidence this fall.

Central Alberta by the Numbers

  • Alberta (July 2025): 7,644 sales (-4.2% YoY) | 12,049 new listings (+9.1%) | 21,099 active listings (+17.4%) | MOI: 2.76.
  • Red Deer (July 2025): 213 sales | 276 new listings | 315 active | SNLR: 77% | MOI: 1.48 | Avg price: $404,783 (+10% YoY).
  • Other Communities (Sept 3): Sylvan Lake - 2.6 MOI | Lacombe - 2.3 | Blackfalds - 1.3.

Why This Month Feels Different

Compared to last year, we’re seeing a cooler sales pace and more listings across the province. Red Deer’s numbers are still fairly strong (with a 77% sales-to-new listings ratio), but the important part is where the market is heading: more choice for buyers, slower urgency, and the need for smarter pricing and marketing strategies as we head into fall.
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